Keep a count of it. Everyone talks themselves out of things, and 'I always pull it off at the last minute' is a belief living off the handful of times it was true.

What the research says

A review of how episodic foresight develops in children takes care to separate it from planning, from delay of gratification and from remembering to do things later, treating these as related but distinct. That matters here because 'I'll wing it' quietly bundles them all together. It is a developmental review rather than evidence about self tracking, so take the distinction and not much more.

Strength of evidence: one line of research. A single study, or a theoretical account.