One. Deciding in advance

You do not wait to be turned down. You get there first.

They will not want me there. They are only asking to be polite. I will spoil the mood. Somebody has to say it, so you say it to yourself, and then there is no need to go.

It is efficient and it never gets tested, which is the problem. A prediction that is never checked against an outcome does not stay a prediction. It quietly becomes a fact about the world.