Lesson 5 of 6 · Getting real about safety
The part nobody says out loud
Separation is one of the markers that turns up most consistently around the worst outcomes, and a course that told you to leave without saying so would be doing you harm.
Here is what was actually measured, because the short version you will have heard is bigger than the evidence behind it. The largest study of its kind compared women who were killed by a partner with women who were being abused by a partner and were not killed. Everybody in it was living with harm. Among them, having separated from him after living together carried roughly three and a half times the odds of being in the group that was killed, and having ever left or asked him to leave, roughly three times. Where he was also highly controlling, separation carried about nine times.
Now read what that compares. It compares abused women who had left with abused women who had not. It does not compare leaving with being safe, because nobody in that study was safe. It cannot tell you that staying is the lower risk, and it was never built to.
So this is not an argument for staying. Nobody here is telling you to stay, and staying carries its own risk, which does not go away by being familiar. It is an argument for one thing only, which is that if you are going to go, the preparation happens before, and it happens with somebody who does this work, and not on the night.
It is also worth knowing which markers weigh heaviest, because almost all of them are about him rather than about anything you decide. A review pooling seventeen studies put access to a gun, pressure on the neck before, forced sex, threats with a weapon, controlling behaviour, and threats to harm you at the top of the list. Whether you have left is on that list. It is not the top of it.
If you have already left, or he knows you are thinking about it, that is not a reason to panic. It is the reason to make contact with a service this week rather than next month.
What the research says
This is where the separation figures come from: women killed by a partner compared with abused women who were not. Having separated after living together carried a raised risk, which is exactly why planning for safety around leaving matters so much.
This is where the separation figures above come from. The study set women killed by an intimate partner against abused women who were not killed. Having been separated after living together carried an adjusted odds ratio of 3.64, having ever left or asked the partner to leave carried 3.19, and a highly controlling partner combined with separation after living together carried 8.98. Both groups were abused women, so the comparison is between leaving and not leaving inside abuse. It does not measure leaving against safety, and it cannot be read as saying that staying is safer.
Campbell JC, Webster D, Koziol-McLain J, and others (2003). Risk factors for femicide in abusive relationships: results from a multisite case control study. American Journal of Public Health, 93(7), 1089 to 1097 doi
Pooling 17 studies, the strongest risk factors were the perpetrator having direct access to a gun, previous non fatal strangulation, previous rape, and previous threat with a weapon. Strangulation in particular is a marker professionals take extremely seriously.
Pooling 17 studies, the strongest risk factors identified were the perpetrator having direct access to a gun, previous non fatal strangulation, previous rape of the victim, previous threat with a weapon, controlling behaviour, and previous threats to harm her. Every item at the top of that list is something he has done or has access to, rather than anything she decided.
Spencer CM, Stith SM (2020). Risk factors for male perpetration and female victimization of intimate partner homicide: a meta-analysis. Trauma, Violence, and Abuse, 21(3), 527 to 540 doi